Small Ball Poker and Day Trading Currencies

Daniel Negreanu is one of the few professional poker players that never seizes to amaze me. He is well know for to reading player's hand on national television (ESPN). If you go through the poker forums, Google, or his vblog...you'll be sure to find that small ball poker strategy is the strategy that successful pros use for tournament poker.

Daniel's tutorial that has shaped my poker play tremendously and I use the same fundamentals on arbitrage.

Small ball in a nutshell:

1. Keep pots small
2. Try to get into as many hands as possible without paying much
3. Play small suited connectors...to see the flop. If you miss...easy lay down...If you hit HUGE pay out.
   
4. Bet out in consistent amounts to hide strength of hands

Uses in day trading (in mini-lots):

1. Risk 3-8% of account portfolio (In my case trade 1 mini-lots until comfortable with Forex)
   
2. Stop loss set at 20 pips I 'cap' my pot commitment to $20 per trade...trading a lot has actually burned me (my broker probably loves me).
   
3. If the trends run the correctly I rake in a 20-200 pip gain. The idea is to risk very little to rake the reward (kinda like drawing on straights and flushes). Reset stops once you're on a run to cap profits...example: set stop at 10 pips once it breaks +20 pips...set 20 pips otb +30 pips...etc. Basically protect your hand.
   
4. Don't get cocky and put the entire fund at stake on a 'hunch'. Play this game by the books and grind it out.
   

The climb up...

Items to improve on:

• Watch mentor's AM review everyday (He was not showing the AM reviews...for most of January...much of his information could have prevented much of my bad habits.)
• Be patient...trading mini-lots makes me more likely to enter trades w/o a thought out process...trading a standard lot would make me slow down on my decision making...I need to treat each trade like it's my only one for the day.
• Stop speculating and start 'trading' - I am not following what I have been taught. Ugh.
• Limit losses at 20 pips per day...
• Don't be afraid to get back in...I got burned real bad last month...and I have seen a lot of entry points but I have fear of loss prior to getting in (stop being emotional).
  

Trades:

February 1 pip

2/12
EUR/USD 0 pip
2/3
EUR/USD 1 pip

Total Account change: $190.56 (201 pips)

New Rich

Money is in the account...the game plan:

Stick with EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF for my big four. Trade 1 mini lot aka 1 pip=$1.

Set stops at max 20 pips...if hit profit move stops to 1 pip profit. Next profit stop move will be when reached 20 pips...and keep moving according to trend.

1/13 -36pips

USD/JPY 1 pips [89.10 S - 89.09 B] 2:30:44

Broke support...tried to find best entry...but kept using limit orders that missed which resulted in lost profit. Use market orders when want to fill order immediately. Moved stop to over 1 pip when passed. Got stopped out. Price did reverse...so good move on stops so far

EUR/USD 1 pips [1.3267B - 1.3268S] 2:41:18

I saw a pattern that I concluded was going to send this currency up. I moved in...same result as previous trade. Hindsight: It moved lower before the ascent...go thing stops are being used.

GBP/USD -15 pips [1.415B - 1.4700S] 3:04:53

I thought that this patter was forming a triangle that was going to break out...i was wrong. Set stop at -15 pips. Got stopped out. I need to stop trading against the trend...biggest mistake. Thought I could scalp after my JPY and EUR moves.

USD/CHF -10 pips [1.1165S - 1.1175B] 3:08:30

USD/CHF -13 pips [1.1181B - 1.1168S] 3:16:41

This was an accidental trade...I thought my previous trade did not cover. I am stilling getting the bugs worked out on my trading.

1/14 21 pips

GBP/USD 20 pips [1.4643B - 1.466S] 3:13:22

Broke Tom Demark Trendline...all indicators were lining up. It did go up to 33 pips at the time...but put profit stop at 20 pips...it went back down and hit it. Maybe wait for indicators to sell...could have road the wave even higher.

EUR/USD 1 pip [1.3220B - 1.3221 S] 4:04:53

Speculative trade...Stochastics lined up...hoping to jump into the trade before a rush. Got stopped out.

1/16 21 pips

USD/JPY 2 pips [90.32B - 90.34S] 1:51:08

The overall trend is up...today is my first day "scalping" There was a dip and when the price hit the bottom channel then I bought. Indicators along with a spinning top candle stick after a down trend results in a buy with what I thought to be a 70% in the green. It went up 10 pips...set stop to over one pip to prevent swings...I got stopped out.

GBP/USD 1 pip [1.4834S - 1.4833B] 2:50:48

Got stoped out after hitting the green.

EUR/USD 18 pips [1.3233S- 1.3205B] 3:14:47

Broke trend line...had momentum jumped in...Think or Swim trading froze but had streaming quotes. After it hit about 20 pips I should at market.

1/20 -40 pips

USD/JPY -5 pips [90.42S - 90.47B] 2:45:24

Spinning top after a run up...i figured it would go down. I went up almost hit my stop...then dropped and pulled my position because of fear. I should follow my instincts.

USD/JPY -10 pips [90.44S - 90.54B] 2:50:58

Ugh...Instincts were correct...I have a really tight stop...

EUR/GBP -10 pips [.9259B - .9249S] 13:41:45

EUR/GBP -15 pips [1.2940S - 1.2955B] 17:41:11

1/21 -62 pips

EUR/USD -15 pips [1.2936S - 1.2951] 1:24:18

I entered too late...ugh. Broke trend line. I was expecting the price to continue down...but rebounded to pivot point and stopped triggered.

USD/JPY 3 pips
EUR/USD -15 pips
USD/JPY 1 pip
EUR/USD -16 pips
AUD/USD -20 pips

1/22 -28 pips
EUR/GBP -2 pips
GBP/USD -2 pips
EUR/USD 1 pip
GBP/USD 1 pip
EUR/USD -26 pips

1/23 -70 pips
USD/JPY -16 pips
USD/GBP -14 pips
USD/CAD -20 pips
EUR/USD -20 pips

1/24 12 pips
USD/JPY 12 pips

1/27 -20 pips
USD/GBP -20 pips

I make sooo many trades...it's hard to type it all out. I am currently figuring out a new system of recording my trades. I am getting whipsawed like crazy. I am glad I am on mini-lots...down $200 instead of $2000 (Years of losing money in poker has trained me to keep my head up...I am definitely fearful of getting in trades...which is NOT good. I have been stopped out 90% of my trades...make me wonder if I should just trade the opposite ;-) Learning curve still in process...

January total -202 pips